niedziela, 3 października 2021

The world is complex not complicated

Old and worn sentence: the whole is more than a sum of its parts – metamorphose into deeper meaning with “casual emergence”, which is a new concept proposed by neuroscientist Erik Hoel. His theory of reality introduces a mathematical explanation of how purpose and intrinsic new attributes arise. After rejecting the reductionist assumption that every form of consciousness (human free will) is merely a result of basic particle interaction, we can start to wonder what constitutes this other and new attribute that develops in living bodies. Reality can’t be described only by the physical interactions of atoms, ruled by the cause and effect of general relativity and quantum forces of nature. Sum can’t be justified by the nature of its parts – a human cannot get away from responsibility (he is not only his genes and upbringing). In the process of emerging complexity, new capabilities appear as an effect of connectivity and smart (in the right order) assembly (designed to perpetrate a new kind of role).

For example, consciousness is an effect of connectivity, ability to move is an effect of smart assembly (mainly) of engine parts in a car. These casually emerging capabilities are not an exclusive consequence of closing together its parts in the right sequence. Even a properly assembled automobile is only a piece of machinery (a complicated alloy of metals) without its driver who gives it a purpose. When describing the causality of a system, we clearly see that a living system has more casual power over its future than a sum of a causal power of its composition. Moreover, a fine-grained description of causality for parts will mislead us to the right synergy of effects.

Like error-correcting algorithms, which can increase the amount of data that can be sent through information channels, these emerging properties in reality qualitatively elevate what is possible for constituents.

Like our gut bacteria microbiome which consists of many times more genes than cells of our bodies. These tiny lifeforms stay inside our intestines to achieve a greater probability of finding a suitable place to settle and thrive. Probably an entire biosphere tolerates human technical civilization for the greater good. With us it can explore Solar System hitchhiking on our robots and soon earthly lifeforms will explore Milky Way on our spaceships. We won’t go anywhere without our gut bacteria – we need them to stay healthy and digest more easily.

“Casual emergence” is a result of complexity. The complexity comes from the connectivity and interactions of many, many parts. These systems must be governed by fairly simple rules but that doesn’t mean they are self-explanatory, quite the opposite, they are far from ease of explanation.

Our self-similar (fractal) world is based on a few basic principles. The obvious mechanical particle layer is controlled by laws of physics, accompanied by social laws of human interaction (and also by some basic instincts of animals and “needs” of simpler life forms). Because social laws can create very complex interactions, they must be simple – only simplicity can create complexity. Every single time we downgrade the level of complication, it is done by making the rules simpler (which is harder, not easier) which makes a system more scalable.

Complicated systems can be easily controlled because they are carefully designed and every such system has a detailed description (which makes the costs of building such systems very high). On the other hand, complex systems are easy to build, by implementing simple rules, but they are very hard to control because they form vast networks of interactions almost impossible to describe.

Formulating predictions about a complex system is very hard because of many vicious and virtuous circles forming within. Prediction about a complicated system is easy to grasp when we find crucial weak or by other criterion critical points of such a system.

Every single entity must rely on an equilibrium between complication and complexity. Every form of a system has advantages that must outweigh the costs.

When we have time and energy to prepare, we can think of designing sturdy and harder to penetrate complicated systems which will give us the ability to test the most probable outcomes. When a process of validation is complete, maintenance is negligible.

When we design a highly reactive system capable of withstanding major changes in an environment of operations, we must build for a potential of complexity based on a few simple rules, like swarm or shoal forming. Every element has only a few basic needs and a few basic ways of reacting. That is why societies can be so robust and also so unpredictable.

Our long dreamt age of total control over reality becomes elusive when we realize that almost every sophisticated system, for instance, a machine learning algorithm, is conjointly too complex to understand. It is not because it has too many rules or so many different convoluted parts but because it builds its complexity from unpredictable interactions of simplicity. Almost every durable and change-resistant and therefore useful system is a part of a natural world which is complex, not a part of the artificial technosphere made by a man – which is merely complicated. Mechanistic interactions between particles are complex, so the weather, for example, is unpredictable. On the other hand, actions of a complicated computer program, based on the source code, can be forecasted easily.

People like to understand reality but sooner or later with constant progress in discovering the integral simplicity and an introduction of complex systems replacing complicated ones (because they are more robust and cost-effective) will dismantle our ability to learn and to understand the reality we live in. The world is shifting from carefully designed complicated systems into more reliable in a constantly changing world complex systems.

Going further into the future of technical civilization humanity will annihilate its ability to know how things work, how our tools operate. We will plunge into the abyss of environmental ignorance. We will know what gives us security and pleasure but we will be puzzled how this system can function without supervision. The technical difficulty to understand the surroundings will be impenetrable for our minds so we will have to trust (that everything is going to be well) and let go (what must happen, will happen). This has to create some form of mystical experience when habitual faith replaces the hunt for the truth. So soon we will all de-evolve into more primordial, more compatible with our nature, organic form of cooperation with our technological achievements, which will be almost biological, transparent in user experience, in other words, “indistinguishable from magic”, as Arthur C. Clarke would say.

Zbigniew Galar

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